There was a marked shift in Australian media in the past week, after Pauline Hanson released One Nation’s new gas policy.

The headlines were all similar; “overhaul the gas industry” and “Nordic-style plan”. Which it is – Hanson proposes gas companies receive a 30 per cent tax break during the exploration stage, in exchange for the government having the option of buying up to a 30 per cent stake in future projects.

This all sounds very reasonable and given how much One Nation propositions itself as the “reasonable centre” rather than where it sits – on Australia’s increasingly crowded far right – will attract a lot of people who believe Australians should own stakes in these resources.

Nationalism has always been one of One Nation’s strongest threads – it has previously proposed nationalising the banks and services to return Australia to its “golden era” and received loyal support from the regions in return. These policies have not been taken seriously however, despite their (understandable) support. This one has. And it’s worth interrogating why.

One Nation is on the rise, yes. And there is talk in Liberal-National circles that, after the next election, One Nation will be the official opposition. Every Nationals seat would fall at these current levels of support – and it wouldn’t take much for regional Liberal seats to topple either (Labor is not immune, but has the numbers to hold on to government, even in minority, unless the inner-city seats also start swinging this hard). But it also makes One Nation a serious player for industries imagining it holding the balance of power in the House of Representatives.

Which is why Hanson announced her policy at a gas conference; it has the approval of the gas industry. And there is a reason for that. Unlike the ACTU’s proposal for a 25 per cent gas export tax, which the industry would have to start paying immediately.

Under the policy Hanson has put her name to, it would take at minimum, all things going right, 10 years before the gas industry began paying anything to Australians. Which is why it has not kicked up a fuss – not only does it know that the policy will never actually result in it paying anything of substance (and the failed PRRT is proof of that), it derails the push to make the gas industry pay something now.

Anything that breaks public support for the gas tax is a good thing, in the industry and its supporters’ eyes. Pushing off having to pay anything back to Australians is even better – an energy glut is coming as more nations transition towards renewables at a faster pace to ensure their own future energy security, at the same time as fossil fuel projects ramp up. In 10-15 years, the cost of gas is expected to fall as demand does. Which means having to pay then will mean the golden profit era of now continues unabated.

Gas executives know this, which is why they have worked so hard to woo Hanson (through Barnaby Joyce, who also knows this). The policy was being massaged right up until Hanson delivered her speech and the final version, according to people who saw earlier incarnations, was an even more watered down and weak version of what was first presented in consultation to the industry.

In return, the gas industry has platformed Hanson, giving her the mainstream legitimacy she craves, and it worked – the media has presented her proposal as a serious idea, and it is being discussed as a legitimate policy alternative.

Hanson is being handled very delicately by Joyce and the gas industry because she’s maybe the most powerful she has ever been – able to harness popular support for ideas that seem in the national interest, but actually serve industry. And the media is largely giving her a free pass to do it without scrutiny, because she is an emerging mainstream power player and access is valued over inquiry. Which is also not new – in this country, “reform” is anything power endorses.

What Hanson has done, though, is show once and for all that the only people who think the status quo is the way forward, are the Labor and Liberal parties. The gas industry knows that, so it is supporting the circuit breaker, which makes it seem like something is being done, without anything having to materially change.

Labor can either be dragged to change by endorsing Hanson and One Nation – and everything else pulling that right-wing Jenga block will collapse – or it can lead and break a promise to the gas industry to keep one to the Australian people. Or it can keep doing nothing and face the consequences of that. Your move, Prime Minister.