With an upcoming FIFA World Cup being staged across the nation, 2026 was supposed to be a bumper year for tourism to the US, driven in part by hordes of arriving soccer fans.

Yet, the US tourism industry is worried. While the rest of the world got a travel bump in 2025, with global international arrivals up 4 per cent, there was a downturn in the US.

The number of foreign tourists who came to America fell by 5.4 per cent during the year – a sharper decline than the one in 2017-18, the last time, outside the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, that the industry was gripped by fears of a travel slump.

Policy stances from the Trump administration on everything from immigration to tariffs, along with currency swings and stricter border controls, have seemingly proved a turnoff to travellers from other countries, especially Canadians – the single largest source of foreign tourists for the United States. Canadian travel to the US fell by close to 30 per cent in 2025.

But it is not just visitors from Canada who are choosing to avoid the US. Travel from Australia, India and Western Europe, among others, has also shrunk.

We are experts in tourism. And while we don’t possess a crystal ball, we believe that the tourism decline of 2025 could well continue through 2026. The evidence appears clear: Washington’s ongoing policies are putting off would-be travellers. In other words, the tourism industry is in the midst of a “Trump slump.”

Fewer Canadians heading south

The impact of President Donald Trump’s policies are perhaps most pronounced when looking north of the US border. According to the US Travel Association, Canadian visitors generated approximately 20.4 million visits and roughly US$20.5 billion ($A29 billion) in visitor spending in 2024, supporting about 140,000 American jobs.

The economic impact of fewer Canadian visitors in 2025 affects mostly border states that depend heavily on people driving across the border for retail, restaurants, casinos and short-stay hotels.

The sharp drop in return trips by car to Canada is a direct indication that border economies might be facing stress. This has led elected officials and tourism professionals to woo Canadians in recent months, sometimes with “Canadian-only deals”.

And it isn’t just border states. In Las Vegas, some hotels are offering currency rate parity between Canadian and US dollars for rooms and gambling vouchers to try to attract customers.

Winter-sun states, such as Florida, Arizona and California, are facing both fewer short-stay arrivals and an emerging drop-off in Canadian “snowbirds”. Reports indicate a noticeable increase in Canadians listing US properties in Florida and Arizona for sale and canceling seasonal plans, threatening lodging, health care spending and property tax revenue.

Economic and safety concerns

Economic policies pursued by the Trump administration appear to be among the main reasons visitors are staying away from the U.S.

Multiple tariff announcements – pushing tariffs to the highest levels since 1935 – along with tougher border-related rhetoric and an aggressive foreign policy have contributed to a negative perception of the US among would-be tourists.

Many foreigners report feeling unwelcome or uncertain about travel to the US, and some public leaders from Canada and Europe have urged citizens to spend domestically, instead. This significantly reduced intent to travel to the US in 2025.

Meanwhile, exchange rates and inflation have further affected some aspiring travellers, especially Canadians. The Canadian dollar was weakened in 2025, making US trips more expensive. This disproportionately affected day-trip and shopping-driven border crossings.

Travellers are also staying away from the US because of safety concerns. Several countries have posted travel advisories about the risks of travelling to the US, with Germany being the latest. Although most worries are related to increased border controls, recent aggressive tactics by immigration agents have added to potential visitors’ decisions to avoid the US.

A wake-up call for the US

The tourism outlook is reason for concern. Julia Simpson, president and CEO of the industry association World Travel and Tourism Council, has described the situation as a “wake-up call” for the US government.

“The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction,” she said in May 2025. “While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the US government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”

According to estimates, the US stood to lose about $30 billion in international tourism in 2025 as travellers chose to travel elsewhere.

The disappointing figures for US tourism follow a longer trend. The share of global international travel heading to the US fell from 8.4 per cent in 1996 to 4.9 per cent in 2024 and was expected to drop to 4.8 per cent in 2025. Meanwhile, arrivals to other top tourism destinations, including France, Greece, Mexico and Italy, are set to increase.

The decline is also being felt by the business tourism sector, with every major global region sending fewer people to the US for work.

A World Cup bump?

What does that mean for the upcoming FIFA World Cup, with 75 per cent of the soccer matches being hosted across the United States? Traditionally, host nations benefit from sports events, although impacts are often overestimated. After a disappointing year, the US tourism sector expects the World Cup to boost visits and revenue.

But Trump’s foreign policy may undermine those expectations.

A new visa integrity fee of $US250 ($A351) and plans for social media screening of some visitors make travel to the US less attractive. And there are growing calls for a boycott of the US following some of Trump’s policies, including his aggressive stance about Greenland.

A giant model of the official match ball for the FIFA 2026 World Cup on show inside the Adidas store in Manhattan. Photo: AAP

Former FIFA president Sepp Blatter has suggested that fans avoid going to the US for the World Cup.

It remains to be seen whether fans will follow his call. Bookings for flights and hotels were up after the dates and venues of games were announced in December.

But political rhetoric is affecting travel decisions, especially given that fans from some specific countries may not be able to get visas. The US government has imposed travel bans on Senegal, Ivory Coast, Iran and Haiti, all of which have qualified for the World Cup.

European soccer leaders have even discussed the possibility of a boycott, although such an action is unlikely to happen, given the revenue at stake for national teams and football associations.

Will the ‘Trump slump’ continue?

White House policies look unlikely to drastically change in the next few months. This causes concern for tourism professionals, although most have remained silent about the recent immigration crackdown.

To make matters worse, federal funding for Brand USA, the national destination marketing organisation, was cut deeply in mid-2025, leading to staff shortages that have reduced the country’s capacity to counter negative sentiment through positive promotion.

Soccer fans tend to be passionate about following their national side. And this could offset some of the impact of the Trump travel slump.

Yet, with sky-high match ticket prices and the international reputation of the US as a tourism destination damaged, we believe it is unlikely that the tourism industry will recover in 2026. It will take a long time and good strategies to repair the serious damage done to the nation’s image among travelers in the rest of the world.

Frédéric Dimanche, Professor and former director (2015-2025), Ted Rogers School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Toronto Metropolitan University and Kelley A. McClinchey, Teaching Faculty, Geography and Environmental Studies, Wilfrid Laurier University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.