Reality is finally starting to bite in the US and it hasn’t come in a misspelt all-capital letters post on Truth Social.

The first major sign of the change was election results in Virginia, New Jersey, Georgia, Pennsylvania and New York.

Well, New York is probably a bit of stretch but the Virginia result was by 14 per cent and New Jersey was also double digits and Georgia flipped a vote on a Public Service Commission ballot for the first time in recent memory. In Mississippi, Democrats won three seats and broke the Republican supermajority in the Senate.

The second sign of reality was a series of recent polls from CNN, CBS, NBC and ABC that put Trump underwater by anything from 12 points to 26.

The third reality bite is the emergence of a few Republican potential 2028 presidential candidates trailing their coats in the clear belief that their Great Leader is beginning to look like a lame duck. Only a few months ago, such intimations would be fatal but today they just seem prescient.

Data journalist Elliott Morris has looked at attitudes to Trump’s use of executive powers. Fifty-one per cent opposed mass deportations (37 per cent support); 54 per cent oppose directing the Justice Department to investigate political opponents; 53 per cent oppose using the Insurrection Act to deploy active-duty military for immigration enforcement; 53 per cent opposed attacking foreign nationals without Congressional approval.

Trump may love tariffs but a majority of Americans oppose his policy on them. Of course, this reality has passed Trump by. Instead, he is clinging to his own.

The research analysis also showed that Trump has hit new approval lows on prices, healthcare, education and foreign policy. Democrats lead on voters’ trust on all of these, although Trump gets majority approval on border security, deportations, immigration, crime (just) and border control.

As for what voters believe Trump is committed to — other than personal enrichment and bling — that is protecting the freedom to own firearms. However, 56 per cent believe he is not committed to free and fair elections, 57 per cent say the same for a fair criminal justice system. Fifty-seven percent think he is not committed to freedom of speech, 61 per cent think he is not committed to freedom of the press and 55 per cent also believe he is “acting like he is above the law, consolidating power like a king would to achieve his own personal goals and practices regardless of what other branches of government say”.

As for the current gerrymandering of electorates, 63 per cent of voters say the US Congress should pass a federal law mandating that state redistricting plans are fair to each party.

Morris says the most recent election results were not merely a “thermostatic backlash” to the President, first because the swings were larger than average (14 per cent in Virginia since 2022) and second because exit polls showed the people who swung were voting against Trump.

“The best explanation for 2025 is that voters didn’t know what there were getting with Trump 2.0 last November, but now they do – and they don’t like it,” he said.

What does all this mean for next year’s mid-term elections? When Americans were asked who they would vote for if elections were held today for Congress, Democrats had an 8 per cent lead. Significant, but it’s early days.

Trump’s most recent comments on these poll numbers indicate just how unhinged he is. He told the media he has “the highest poll numbers that I’ve ever had and I have the best numbers for any president in many years”.

CNN fact checker Daniel Dale responded by saying:

“In reality, polls show that Americans’ approval of Trump has declined significantly since the beginning of his second term in late January. Multiple polls confirm that Trump’s poll numbers are nowhere near the ballpark of their highest-ever levels.

“Indeed, his net approval is down 26 per cent since the first days of his term. The data shows that every other person elected president after World War II had better poll results at this stage of their presidency than Trump.”

George W. Bush, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan, Jimmy Carter, Richard Nixon, JFK, Eisenhower and Harry Truman all had better ratings at this stage in their presidency than Trump. All of them told lies at various points in their presidencies but none — not even Nixon — matches Trump in terms of unhinged lying.

In another surprising electoral development, Democrats from outside New York’s five boroughs are now wondering what they can learn from the young socialist, Zohran Mamdani.

But the New York adage — if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere — does not apply to American politics. The city’s electorate is more liberal and far less white than America’s. Our analysis of the results shows that the parts of New York that most resemble the rest of the country, not New York, backed Mamdani’s centrist rival, Andrew Cuomo, a former Democratic governor who ran as an independent.

Meanwhile, lame duck manoeuvring is inevitable in most presidential terms. Early days and fear of Trump retaliation limit it somewhat.

But The Washington Post is reporting that Republicans are already speculating on who their next Presidential nominee might be. The names Marco Rubio and JD Vance are just among a few being suggested and there will be more.

Noel Turnbull has had a 50-year-plus career in public relations, politics, journalism and academia

This article first appeared in Pearls and Irritations. Read the original here