Today is the official start to summer and the weather bureau has offered us an outlook for what to expect over the next three months – warmer-than-average days and nights across most of Australia and below-average rainfall for some areas.

Some regions have also been singled out for a warning about increased fire danger.

Here’s what each state can expect, according to the Bureau of Meteorology’s official long-range forecast for summer 2025-2026.

Queensland

Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Queensland. There is an increased chance of unusually warm daytime temperatures for large areas.

The bureau predicts warmer than usual nights for much of Queensladn, with an increased chance of unusually warm overnight temperatures, especially in the north.

“Summer rainfall is likely to be above average for parts of the far north and below average for western parts. There are roughly equal chances of above or below-average rainfall in the east,” it says.

NSW and the ACT

BOM predicts below-average December rainfall for both regions.

“The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall,” it said.

“The forecast for summer as a whole currently shows below average rainfall is likely for large parts of inland NSW.”

The outlook is for above-average day and night-time summer temperatures, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures in the ACT and some central and eastern parts of NSW.

Victoria

The southern mainland state may be in for a hot summer. BOM predicts warmer than usual summer days and nights – “with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures”.

Its forecast predicts below-average rainfall for Victoria in December, with near-equal chances of above or below-average rainfall in January and February.

Western Australia

“The summer forecast currently shows that rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of Western Australia. Above, below or near-average rainfall are all possible outcomes for the south,” the bureau said.

WA can also expect a warmer than usual summer, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures in the state’s north. That region also has an increased chance of unusually high night-time temperatures, as does the south-west.

South Australia

Unfortunately, SA, which endured a long drought to start this year, looks like starting 2026 in the same way.

“The forecast for December currently shows below-average rainfall is likely for much of the state,” the bureau said.

“The forecast for January and February for most areas currently shows there are near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.”

It said summer days and nights were likely to be warmer than average statewide.

Tasmania

Tasmania is another region predicted to have warmer than usual days and nights in the next three months.

The weather bureau said it had “an increased chance of unusually high temperatures”, while the summer forecast so far showed near-equal chances of above or below average rainfall.

Northern Territory

BOM predicts the NT will be drier than average in December, with January and February so far difficult to predict.

“For summer as a whole, rainfall is likely to be below average for some parts of the west and north,” it said.

“Summer days and nights are very likely to be warmer than usual for much of the Northern Territory. There is an increased chance of unusually warm temperatures, especially in the north.”

Bushfire dangers

The bureau singled out three regions of particular concern as another bushfire season looms.

“There’s an increased risk of fire this summer for parts of central-northern NSW, much of southern Victoria, and regions in the west and south of Western Australia,” senior climatologist Lynette Bettio said.

“Communities are urged to prepare and review their bushfire and emergency plans and to monitor local conditions, even in regions with normal bushfire risk.”

The National Council for Fire and Emergency Services, which released its seasonal outlook last Thursday, also noted elevated fire danger in parts of Victoria, Western Australia, and central-northern NSW.