While the US first lady’s soon to be released documentary MELANIA has certainly caused a buzz, entertainment industry tracking sites suggest it may be a cinematic bomb.

Despite recent claims by US President Donald Trump that tickets to the premiere at the newly renamed Trump-Kennedy Centre next week are a “very hard get”, the numbers tell a different story.

Tracking models project a domestic opening in the low single-digit millions of dollars — a fraction of the  US$40 million ($60 million) Amazon paid for the movie.

Hollywood insider Rob Shuter quoted one source as saying that in New York, “only a handful of seats have been booked”.

“The studio was expecting a big turnout, but so far it’s not materialising,” he said.

Amazon MGM Studios reportedly outbid Disney and Paramount for this project, with its US$40 million becoming the largest documentary licensing deal in history.

While it can be argued that many viewers will wait to access the documentary via Prime Video, the lack of enthusiasm also suggests streaming numbers may also be disappointing.

Analysts emphasise that a documentary focused on Melania’s administrative position in planning her husband’s presidential inauguration last year lacks the drama and conflict viewers look for in cinema.

Meanwhile, potential viewers have balked at the US$25 ($37) ticket price for what early critics have labelled a “104-minute transition vlog” or a “long-form campaign advertisement”.

Online commenters on social media platforms such as X and Reddit have mocked the cinematography as “static” and “staged,” comparing MELANIA to a “high-budget perfume advertisement” rather than a legitimate documentary.

With the tagline “witness history in the making”, Amazon says the documentary features “exclusive footage capturing critical meetings, private conversations, and never-before-seen environments”.

The trailer features Trump as Melania assists him on camera.

“My proudest legacy will be that of peacemaker,” he says before she adds “peacemaker and unifier”.

“Everyone wants to know, so here it is,” she says later in the footage.

Some non-fans have gone as far as vandalising promotional posters in US cities, reportedly defaced them with spray paint and pens.

Promotional posters have been ridiculed and defaced. Photo: Facebook

Adding to the documentary’s challenges is the fact that its director, Brett Ratner, is a disgraced Hollywood figure who is attempting a comeback after being blacklisted in 2017 following sexual misconduct allegations.

In December, a photo of Ratner was included in images and documents released from files associated with convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. It shows Ratner posing with the late French model agent and Epstein associate Jean-Luc Brunel.

Ivanka ‘erasure’

As well as critiquing MELANIA‘s perceived deficiencies as a movie, much has also been made the so-called “erasure” of Trump’s daughter and former White House insider Ivanka Trump from the project.

Reports have quoted “insiders” as claiming that Melania, who was an executive producer, deliberately removed any mention or footage of her stepdaughter to ensure the film remained a “character-driven portrait” of her own role.

Commenters have also noted that Ivanka was also noticeably absent from the guest list for the premiere at the Trump Kennedy Centre.

Donald Trump has pushed back against the “flop” narrative, calling the film “incredible” while speaking to journalists on Air Force One late last year.

While admitting he had seen only clips and not the full documentary, he compared the production’s potential success to his wife’s recent best-selling book, insisting demand for the premiere was “sky-high” among the elite.