The cost of your daily flat white or cappuccino is likely to keep rising as major coffee-producing countries swelter through more days of extreme, plant-damaging heat.

That’s the warning from researchers who report that the world’s top five coffee-growing countries experienced, on average, 57 extra days of temperatures above 30 degrees annually over the past five years because of climate change.

Brazil, where most of Australia’s coffee comes from, had an extra 70 days of harmful heat, which can reduce yields, affect bean quality and make plants more susceptible to disease.

“Climate change is coming for our coffee,” said Kristina Dahl, vice-president for science at Climate Central, which conducted the analysis.

“In time, these impacts may ripple outward from farms to consumers, right into the quality and cost of your daily brew.”

Scientists have been warning about the impact of climate change on coffee plantations for several years, but the Climate Central analysis highlights the increasing frequency of what it describes as “pollution-fuelled heat”. This is especially damaging for arabica coffee plants, which account for the majority of global supply and are more sensitive to heat than robusta varieties.

“Changes to rainfall patterns can further stress coffee plants,” said the report.

“Adequate and consistent rain is crucial for their growth.”

Coffee plantations in Brazil have been hit by drought. Photo: Reuters

A 2023 drought in Brazil has been linked to recent coffee price spikes. The cost of both arabica and robusta beans almost doubled between 2023 and 2025, according to International Coffee Organisation figures, and peaked in February last year.

Over the same period in Australia, the average cost of a flat white increased about 10 per cent – something that won’t have escaped the millions of avid coffee drinkers who can’t get by without their daily caffeine hit.

While Climate Central says more than two billion cups of coffee are consumed around the world every day, a nationwide survey in this country last year revealed that Australians drink an extraordinary 4.1 billion litres of coffee a year. A previous study by YouGov suggested that some 66 per cent of us consume the beverage either daily or almost every day.

But while the bean shortages ultimately affect consumers’ wallets, it is the farmers growing the beans who are most impacted.

The research revealed that 25 countries in what is known as the “bean belt” experienced harming heat during the past five years due to climate change. The top five coffee-producing nations of Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia and Indonesia all had more than 144 days, on average, of temperatures above 30 degrees.

Source: Climate Central

“Most coffee growers are smallholders – farming less than about 12 acres (4.85 hectares) of land – who may rely on this one crop for their livelihoods, making them particularly vulnerable to the agricultural impacts of climate change,” the Climate Central report concluded.

“Changing conditions threaten the amount of land available for coffee production. Land suitable for coffee farming may decrease by 50 per cent by 2050 without adequate adaptation.”

Sustainable agricultural practices – such as planting taller trees to help shade coffee plants – is seen crucial to meeting the climate challenge.

Akshay Dashrath, co-founder and producer of the South India Coffee Company, told EU News that field sensors on its Mooleh Manay farm showed longer hot periods, warmer nights, and faster loss of soil moisture, all of which increase stress on coffee plants.

“Coffee depends on a delicate balance of shade, moisture, and cool recovery time,” Dashrath said.

“As this balance shrinks, adapting through better soil health and climate-resilient farming practices is no longer a choice.”

Another producer on Indigenous land in Rondonia, Brazil, has embraced agroforestry to help produce its Amazonian robusta coffee, but said it had received little financial assistance for climate adaptation.

“We have never been able to access rural credit,” Chief Rafael Mopimop Suru said.

“It’s a lot of bureaucracy. They arrive here without understanding our reality, they talk and then leave.”

Meanwhile, Australia does have its own small, but growing, domestic coffee industry, estimated to consist of about 50 producers in tropical and subtropical areas of the country.

Climate variability is just one of the challenges it faces, but a recent “coffee industry plan” released by AgriFutures Australia suggests a path for future growth over the next five years. Scientists at Southern Cross University have also been trialling different coffee trees to see which have the best potential for large-scale production.

“Our aim for Australia is to find new varieties that are better suited for this environment and better suited for the mechanised conditions of coffee farming in Australia,” professor of plant breeding and genetics Tobias Kretzschmar told SBS last year.

With innovation and adaptation, perhaps coffee addicts won’t need to start weaning themselves off the drink they love just yet.

–with AAP