Data on border crossings is being misused on social media to give an inaccurate picture of migration numbers in Australia.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics says the dataset in question does not measure migration.

Experts say the actual number of migrants is recorded in separate data, known as net overseas migration.

In recent months, multiple social media users have used a section of monthly arrivals and departures data in claims about migration levels.

One Facebook post features a time-series graph of these figures and calls for immigration to be slashed before Australia goes down “a very slippery slope”.

“Immigrant arrivals hit new record high – one every 55 seconds: ‘Dividing our society’,” overlaid text reads.

The figures are based on net permanent and long-term arrivals (NPLT) data in the ABS’s overseas arrivals and departures dataset. However, this does not measure actual migration to Australia.

Instead, this measures the difference between the number of incoming and outgoing permanent and long-term visitors in a given month.

The ABS has warned that this data does not measure migration and it is mostly compiled from traveller declarations on arriving in Australia.

The NPLT data can not be used to derive a figure for migration. Photo: Facebook/AAP

Historically, this has been significantly higher – and occasionally lower – than official migration statistics and can involve double-counting some arrivals.

For example, a person living in Australia for three years on a temporary visa who travels overseas multiple times “can count as a long-term visitor arrival many times, even though they only migrated here once”, the ABS statement said.

Instead, the number of migrants arriving is measured in separate data called net overseas migration, which does not rely on traveller declarations.

The ABS calculates this by finding the difference between international travellers who enter Australia and stay for 12 months or more and those leaving Australia after staying for 12 months or more, within any 16-month window.

Experts have previously said that this less frequently published figure tracks migration far more accurately than a count of travellers’ self-declarations.

While NPLT data is available up to August 2025, the latest net migration figures are for the end of March 2025.

Experts said NPLT data could be used as a leading, or early, indicator of migration, but only when analysed in conjunction with other datasets. However, they said it wasn’t an accurate indicator of the number of migrants at any given time. 

The two datasets have historically followed very similar trends, but the NPLT figures have generally been higher than net migration.

This briefly reversed between late 2021 and early 2024, when official migration figures were higher than NPLT.

Since then, the two datasets have diverged significantly, with NPLT markedly higher than net migration, and they appear to show different trends. 

Former immigration department deputy secretary Abdul Rizvi  previously explained that NPLT figures were generally significantly higher than actual migration.

For example, in 2024 there were 444,480 NPLT arrivals, compared to 334,565 net overseas migrants, according to the ABS.

In other words, net overseas migration averaged 914 people a day, compared to 1214 for NPLT.

-AAP