One Nation has surged ahead of Labor in primary vote numbers in NSW, a year out from the state election.

A Roy Morgan poll released on Monday had the far-right party polling 30 per cent of first-vote preferences, ahead of Labor on 25 per cent and the Coalition on 19 per cent if an election was held today.

Minor parties and independents made up the remaining 26 per cent.

The polling result means a likely hung parliament if an election were held today, with voters’ second and third preferences proving crucial in deciding the final make-up of the next NSW Parliament.

Labor leader Chris Minns remained the preferred state premier when respondents were asked to choose between him and Opposition Leader Kellie Sloane.

“A look at the demographic results shows Premier Chris Minns leading amongst both genders, all four key age groups, in both Sydney and country NSW, and amongst ALP supporters, Greens supporters, One Nation supporters, and supporters of independent and Other Parties,” Roy Morgan said.

Fifty-six per cent of respondents said Minns had done a good job during his first term, and 25 per cent disagreed.

Roy Morgan said two-party preferred results showed Labor ahead of both One Nation and the Coalition.

The pollster analysed three two-party preferred results – between the ALP and One Nation, ALP and the Coalition, and the Coalition and One Nation.

“The ALP is narrowly preferred to One Nation (52.5 per cent/47.5 per cent) on a two-party preferred basis and is an even larger lead over the Coalition (ALP 54/Coalition 46),” it said.

“The closest result is between the Coalition and One Nation, with the Coalition just ahead of One Nation (50.5/49.5) on a two-party preferred basis.”

The NSW polling comes after Roy Morgan found just last week that One Nation was also in first place on primary votes in Victoria.

Its survey, conducted between February 13-16, showed One Nation at 26.5 per cent, narrowly ahead of Labor on 25.5 per cent, while the Coalition trailed at 21.5 per cent.

The Greens sat on 13.5 per cent, with 13 per cent backing independents and minor parties.

Roy Morgan said that also set the scene for a hung parliament if an election reflected the polling. Victorian voters go to the polls on November 28.

Despite One Nation’s surprise primary vote lead, Labor party still came out ahead on preferences in Victoria. It led 52 to 48 against the Coalition and 52.5 to 47.5 against One Nation.

Cori Bernardi will win a seat in the SA upper house if the polling is repeated on election day.

One Nation set for seats in SA upper house

The Roy Morgan polling came hours are another poll found Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is on track to win at least two seats in the South Australian election

A DemosAU/Ace Strategies Poll done exclusively for InDaily and released on Monday showed little traction for the SA Liberals in the state’s upper house ahead of the March 21 vote.

The Liberals, led by Ashton Hurn, stand to gain just a single upper house seat and likely to have to rely on preferences for a second.

Four upper house Liberals face re-election, with four more continuing. That means that the Liberals would retain their status as the state opposition if polling results are repeated on election day.

The poll finds Labor has 38 per cent support, followed by One Nation on 21 per cent, the Liberals with 15 per cent, the Greens on 11 per cent and Family First with 4 per cent.

Based on the polling, DemosAU head of research George Hasanakos predicted a Legislative Council with nine-10 Labor members, six Liberals, two-three from One Nation, one or two Greens, and former One Nation-turned-independent Sarah Game. Three seats would be in doubt.

“We’re seeing a huge swing to One Nation; they’re up 16.8 per cent since the last election and the Liberals are down 19.3 per cent,” he said.

“On these figures, we could see One Nation win at least two seats in the upper house with a chance of a third.

“Meanwhile, the Liberal Party would need to rely on preferences to win a second seat, after winning four at the last election.”

Hasanakos surveyed 1070 South Australians on their views through internet panels from January 31 to February 16, with an effective margin of error of 3.6 per cent.

The swing to One Nation would mean state leader Cory Bernardi picked up a seat, along with the party’s SA president Carlos Quaremba and a potential third.

It’s a spike since the independent pollsters’ October results, which had the Liberals leading One Nation. Since then, a federal Liberal leadership change, Bernardi announcing a One Nation candidate in every SA seat, and Premier Peter Malinauskas addressing One Nation as an opponent have changed the tone.

Polling partner Ace Strategies managing director Matt Neagle said the result “confirms that the Liberals are struggling to reconnect with voters at the very moment they need to demonstrate readiness to govern”.

“One Nation overtaking the Liberals on primary vote would have been unthinkable a few years ago,” Neagle said.

“It speaks to a deep disruption in the centre‑right vote and a level of volatility that will reshape the campaign from here.”