Australian cattle prices appear to have finally ended their record-breaking rise, but the price of beef for consumers is likely to continue rising in the short-term, industry analysts say.

“You’ll probably find the prices will go up, probably a lot in the next two or three months,” South Melbourne butcher Barry House said.

“Families are [already] finding it hard just because the price has gone up so much.

“To buy four steaks might cost you $50 or $60.”

He said customers were buying more of the cheaper beef cuts, mince and sausages, and turning to pork and chicken.

“We’re trying to keep [beef] prices down to keep the sales going, but in the long run they’re going to have to go up to reflect the real price that we’re paying for it,” he said.

Retail prices have been driven higher by a doubling, or in some cases a trebling, of saleyard cattle prices over the past couple of years.

Strong export demand and a shortage of cattle due to the drought in eastern Australia has seen the national herd shrink to a near 20-year low of 26 million head, Lisa Sharpe from Meat and Livestock Australia said.

“We are now in a rebuild stage and we are seeing [graziers] competing for available stock and that has pushed prices up to those highs,” she said.

Auctioneer Terry Ryan, from the Dalby Saleyards in south-east Queensland, said nobody would have budgeted to be selling cattle at the current record prices.

“Two years ago cattle would have been only making roughly a bit over half the value of what they’re making at present,” he said.

“Finally, it’s the cattle producer’s turn to have a win.”

Some farmers hedging their bets

But the record cattle prices have been a double-edged sword.

Kaylene Wonka came to the Dalby saleyards to buy about 20 cattle, but left with only 13.

“Smiles for people selling, but sad faces for people buying,” she said.

“These are the most expensive cattle I’ve ever bought.

“Farming’s always a gamble and dearer prices mean you are gambling more money than what you are with lower prices.”

Many graziers, however cannot even consider buying — they have not got the pasture to restock or are so mired in debt they cannot get back into the market.

But recent rains and a good cover of grass allowed Matt Bennetto to take a punt.

He bought about 100 cattle to cautiously start restocking his family’s Virginia Park Station near Charters Towers, in northern Queensland.

Mr Bennetto will not see the benefits of his purchase for two years, when he hopes to sell the cattle’s offspring.

“I am hedging my bets that regardless of what happens with demand for beef, there is a need to restock … and so I’m banking on the fact the market should remain strong,” he said.

While the benchmark of Australian cattle prices, the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI), has come off this month’s historic high of around 725 cents per kilogram, it is still sitting above 700 cents.

“The EYCI will likely hit a seasonal low of about 580 cents before climbing back to around 675 cents next winter,” market analyst Matt Dalgleish told the ABC.

Given it will take 18 months for cattle numbers “to start normalising”, according to Ms Sharpe, it is unlikely beef prices will be falling any time soon — plenty of incentive to get creative with lesser-known, and cheaper, cuts of beef this summer.